The Dichotomy of MbS
Progressive Reformer or Repressive Autocrat
05.12.19, London — Social Media influencers, flowing blond hair and the Saudi dessert. Sounds like a weird combination but this effectively summarises the latest marketing campaign for Saudi Tourism, as conceived by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). A marketing campaign that stands in stark contrast to accusations leveled against the crown prince, such as the Khashoggi assassination or the Proxy war in Yemen, which cast doubt on the Image of the “moderate reformer” Mohammed bin Salman.
That notwithstanding, many have sympathised with MbS. Thomas L. Friedman of the NY Times described the MbS led corruption crackdown in 2017 as “Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring”. It is of course easy to find this interpretation questionable or MbS’s integrity regarding corruption for that matter — especially considering that, according to the NY Times, MbS once bought a 500 million Euro Yacht, on a whim, after he spotted it off the French coast.
As another NY Times journalist put it, it is substantially more likely that this “corruption crackdown” was merely a consolidation of power, à la Putin, with the added benefit of raising a few extra dimes (approx. $100 Billion) for the Saudi Government. Pre-MbS the system of rule was based on the consensus-building between different royal factions — a system unfit for reform — breaking this status-quo by imprisoning several members of the royal family for corruption, was a necessity for the level of control and power MbS now possesses.
But even if we accept that his ultimate goal is the consolidation of power, that doesn’t necessarily undermine the prospect of a reformed Saudi Arabia. The crown prince summarises his reformist ambitions in “Vision 2030”. Its three pillars — a vibrant Society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation — have set out to open Saudi Arabia up to the world, diversify its Economy, increase living standards and make Saudi government more transparent and effective. Excellent; there is hardly anything that can be said against these goals!
But the question remains, can these goals be taken at face value? — Similar to his corruption crackdown, there might be a dichotomy between projected and real goals.
Examples often used in support of the crown prince are the internal social reforms he has implemented and those still in the pipeline. These include the progress regarding Women’s rights — the lift of the driving ban and most recently, changes to the guardianship system, which restricts the individual freedoms and rights that Saudi women possess. Further, after 30-years the ban on cinemas has been lifted and the first large scale concerts where held.
These reforms can be attributed to what, in conversation with Friedman, the prince described as “restoring Islam to its origins”. MbS stated that “[the] biggest tools (in this process) are the Prophet’s practices and Saudi Arabia before 1979.” Saudi Arabia before 1979 — before the royal house aligned itself with the ultra-conservative Wahhabi clerics and before the doctrine of the latter dominated social life. Although such reform is a definitive step in the right direction, I find it probable that it is a means to an end, a means to reduce the grasp the Wahhabi clerics have on the public realm, reducing their power, in turn further increasing the power of the prince.
But regardless of motivation, as the Saudi artist and activist Ms Saffaa puts it; “(even) when women become equal to men, Saudi Arabia is still going to remain an authoritarian dictatorship that violates countless human rights” (The Guardian). It’s excellent that MbS invites (and not to forget, pays) western influencers and bloggers, to share the beauty and culture of Saudi Arabia with the world. But, we ought to remember that meanwhile, the Saudi influence/blogger Raif Badawi has spent the last 7 years of his life in prison (not to forget the 1000 lashes) for fostering peaceful political discourse.
This happened before MbS’s prime, fair enough, but he hasn’t exactly set a different example since he has come to power. All one needs to point to is the Khashoggi assassination, a crime so ballsy, even Trump described it as “the worst cover-up of all time” — by all measures a tame response to the murder of a US resident. Another prime example is the war in Yemen, fought by a Saudi — that being a specifically MbS-led coalition, a war dominated by famine, human right abuses and obscene civilian casualties.
Having discussed reform, primarily related to “a vibrant society” the question regarding “a thriving economy and an ambitious nation” remains. Here I would attribute more candidness to the crown prince. It is evident to him, as it is too most people with a minimum of economic education, that Saudi Arabia’s current economic situation and structure is not sustainable.
Almost entirely dependent on Oil, with low employment in the private sector, unsustainable Oil funded social spending, low FDI inflows and few non-oil exports a crash in oil prices could destroy the Saudi Economy. Even a relatively minute fall can have momentous consequences. Regardless of the social landscape, economic reform is more than overdue. MbS wants to grow and diversify the Economy while increasing employment and privatising parts of the Aramco Conglomerate.
The biggest obstacle, one that might end up being detrimental to his vision, is the judicial system. Even if he pushes for reform, it is unlikely that international business will flock to Saudi Arabia. The Saudi legal system is based on Sharia law, un-codified, imposed at the discretion of judges who make decisions with a severe lack of precedent.
Although by royal decree there are special committees tasked with elements of commercial law (e.g. contract law or IP) these in no way replace a comprehensive legal structure. This is a massive disincentive to foreign investors. IP rights aren’t protected to modern standards — Sharia law prohibits speculation; and hence, speculative contracts, the payments of interest and claims for compensation after contract breach are close to impossible.
Further the un-codified nature of law makes court rulings impossible to predict, adding further volatility to the commercial realm in Saudi Arabia. I believe that it is reasonable to state that only comprehensive legal reform will enable the economic transition at the basis of the royal vision.
This legal reform is part of the prince’s vision for Neom — “the Davos in the desert” — an independent international regulatory area within Saudi Arabia. Try looking up Neom, there is not much to be found, except for a swanky website and a couple fact sheets with fancy PR slogans. So much for the transparency promised in “Vision 2030”.
There is no way of knowing why the prince does what he does, we can speculate (since we aren’t under Sharia law), but there is hardly a definitive answer. Is the prince the reformer the Saudis need or a power-hungry royal, consolidating his autocracy? Who knows? Maybe he is both. Many of his reforms are reasonable and long overdue. If he follows this current path, life for many Saudis is likely to become better. Even more so if he succeeds at the massive task that is transforming and modernising the Saudi Economy. But as stated by Ms Saffaa, regardless of reform, Saudi Arabia is still an authoritarian autocracy with a blatant disregard for human rights. We shouldn’t be swayed to think that this is going to change any time soon. Neither the Anthony Joshua — Andy Ruiz fight, dubbed “Clash on the Dunes” nor the 5-minute Saudi Arabia montage our favourite YouTuber postes are any indication! It is essential to be critical regarding the motivation for reform, the reform in itself but also of our interpretation of it — often interpreted through a lens of entitlement.
Originally Published in the UCL Economic Tribune — September 2020 Issue 21 (https://www.econtribune.com/)
